Updated 2026-09-12T00:30:16+00:00 · ledger as of 2026-09-04

Verdict of the day

One rotating name from the NIFTY-50 panel, with the engine's full record beneath it.
NTPC
Energy · rank 3
Short the sector by -3.48%
over 2 quarters · 80% interval -14.23% to 7.66% · model confidence 0.353 · as of 2026-09-04
Rotation is deterministic (day-of-year over the 45-name panel), so the pick can't be cherry-picked.

Track record

Performance statistics are being revised and are not shown. The previous table reported directional hit rate against an implied 50% baseline. That baseline was wrong: these are calls on return relative to an equal-weighted sector mean, and because compounded returns are right-skewed the relative figure is negative more often than positive — the no-skill rate is 56–59% at long horizons, not 50%. The stated edge did not survive that correction. We are re-basing the record on rank correlation and quantile spread, which are the appropriate measures for a relative-value model, and will publish those when the evidence supports them. 70,115 resolved calls since 2019 remain in the ledger; nothing has been removed from it.

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Model output, not investment advice. Directional calls carry a horizon and a confidence; both are shown. Past performance of a statistical model does not imply future results.